Table of Contents
Asset | Positioning | 2-May Price | 9-May Price | Change | Verdict |
BTC | Overweight | $96,500 | $103,750 | +7.5% | ✅ Momentum confirmed; breakout underway |
ETH | Underweight → Overweight | $1,820 | $2,250 | +23.6% | ✅ Rotation into ETH caught late, but positioning improved |
SOL | Neutral → Overweight | $150 | $164 | +9.3% | ✅ Solid recovery after early volatility |
What We Got Right ✅
➕ Overweighting altcoins during positive phase
Rotating into Ethereum and Solana mid-week paid off as both assets surged on strong momentum and favorable news — from New Hampshire’s BTC reserve law to the OCC’s crypto-friendly guidance.
➕ Staying Long Despite Volatility
We expected a potential dip toward $85K, but also acknowledged macro tailwinds and regulatory support as potential catalysts. Our flexible stance allowed us to pivot quickly once the breakout began.
➕ Reading the Macro-Policy Inflection
We correctly identified the easing of U.S.–China trade tensions and regulatory shifts as key signals for renewed risk-on appetite. These turned out to be major short-term catalysts.
What We Got Wrong ❌
❌ Expecting a pull-back earlier in the week
We maintained a bearish tilt earlier in the week with a high cash position and dip expectations, missing some of the small but continuous positive momentum.
❌ ETF and Corporate Flows as Overweighted Signal
We relied heavily on corporate and ETF inflow trends to gauge institutional strength. While those flows faded mid-week, prices rallied regardless, driven more by policy and sentiment than net inflows.
Key Lessons:
📊 Macro Policy Shocks Trump Flow Data
Institutional ETF flows are useful but lag major news. Policy surprises like the OCC's approval can override flow-based caution and trigger immediate breakouts.
📈 Altcoins Lead When Macro Risks Fade
ETH’s explosive +18% day confirms that altcoins can outperform when macro sentiment shifts. Overweighting BTC remains foundational, but altcoins need quicker tactical reactions.
⏳ Stay Nimble in Transition Periods
Markets may not give clean pullbacks. Being too conservative can miss upside during rotation phases. Timing breakouts is more forgiving than waiting for perfect dip entries.
Final Takeaway:
This week delivered a critical shift: the breakout we anticipated came not from ETF momentum but from a regulatory inflection. Ethereum’s outperformance, Solana’s resurgence, and Bitcoin's march toward all-time highs prove that digital assets are entering a higher-velocity phase.
We adapted well mid-week by rotating into strength, but could’ve been faster. Going forward, we’ll prioritize momentum confirmation and macro catalysts over waiting for clean technical pullbacks.
What next?
- Maintain higher beta exposure (ETH/SOL) while BTC consolidates near ATHs.
- Watch for broader adoption signals from other states and banks.
- Monitor for renewed ETF flows to confirm sustained institutional interest.
Understanding Our Benchmark and Positioning Terms
Our benchmark is a market-cap weighted index composed of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) — the three most widely held and institutionally tracked assets in the space. Weightings are determined based on each asset’s relative market capitalization at the start of the review period.
When we refer to “neutral weight,” we mean a position aligned with the benchmark weight. An “overweight” position indicates we hold a larger allocation to that asset than its benchmark weight, reflecting higher conviction or expected outperformance. Conversely, an “underweight” position means our allocation is below the benchmark weight, typically due to near-term risks or weaker conviction.
