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Will Markets' Whiplash Continue? Inflation, Fed & China in Focus

Bond speculators have increased their bets that the Federal Reserve would continue raising interest rates. This week will show whether their theory is correct. Also, Wall Street fears return as recession bets plunge.

Sept 11, 2023

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On Wednesday, the government will release the latest numbers from the consumer price index, giving policymakers a better idea of how far they still need to go to bring inflation back to their goal.

In light of the economy's continued outperformance and increasing energy costs, experts are projecting the largest monthly increase in 14 months, and the swaps market is factoring in the possibility that actual results may be even more impressive.

As investors prepare for monetary policy to stay tight for longer than expected, the numbers may provide a new shock to the Treasury market, which has been whipsawed.

Despite rising hopes that the Fed is finished raising rates due to evidence of a slowing labour market, futures traders expect the central bank to boost rates again in November.

With rates approaching their highest levels since before the 2008 financial crisis, Treasuries are headed for a third consecutive year of loss.

Despite a significant drop from last year's four-decade peak, inflation has remained over the Fed's 2% objective.

Fed officials have often stressed that they are not dismissing the possibility of maintaining high-interest rates even after they have stopped raising them due to upside risks to inflation.

Wall Street Fears Return as Recession Bets Plunge

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