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Bitcoin is closing out its first-ever triple-red quarter. January, February, and March all posted losses. Q1 is down 24.16% – the third-worst quarter on record for the world's largest cryptocurrency.
That drawdown is now history. The market's focus has shifted to whether the $60K–$70K band becomes a durable base or merely a speed bump on the way lower. As of Monday morning Asia time, Bitcoin is holding $67,000. That price matters less than what happens next. The critical question is whether accumulation is happening at depth or just at the surface.
What's Driving the Weakness: Macro in Command
The Iran war has made energy the dominant transmission channel into global risk assets. War-related supply disruption is cited as a growing drag on growth and a fresh source of inflation pressure, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining central to markets' risk calculus.
That pressure is visible across crypto and equities alike. SPY ended last week lower. Gold rebounded sharply after a volatile stretch. Bitcoin is holding $67K but without conviction. The regime is clear: macro dominates, and sentiment follows macro data.
This final week of Q1 carries outsized weight. Powell speaks Monday. Consumer confidence and JOLTS arrive Tuesday. ADP and retail sales drop Wednesday. Nonfarm payrolls land Friday. How the market solves the puzzle – whether war-driven inflation keeps policy tight or whether soft labor data opens the door to flexibility – will determine Q2's opening direction.
If this week closes with "tight policy + soft growth," Q2 likely opens with risk-off momentum. If labor data softens and energy stabilizes, Bitcoin and crypto get relief on the rebound.
The ETF Reversal: From Tailwind to Headwind
Bitcoin spot ETFs posted $296 million in net outflows from March 23–28. Ethereum spot ETFs lost $206.58 million. SOL shed $4.2 million. XRP managed just $2.66 million of inflows. This is the first negative week after four straight weeks of inflows.
The reversal matters because spot ETFs had been the primary institutional demand driver. With outflows, the burden shifts entirely to spot demand and short-covering, both of which remain thin. Institutional conviction is fragile.
Bitcoin sits at the lower bound of the $60K–$70K new-buyer cost basis range. Supply accumulation is visible: key levels are holding, and shorts are being squeezed back to elevated levels. However, accumulation remains lighter than the stronger bases seen before prior durable recoveries. The price is positioned for buyers, but participation depth is missing compared to historical precedent.
15%–20% of miners are now unprofitable following a post-halving low hash price near $28 PH/s/day in February. That raises the probability of continued treasury selling, especially with energy costs elevated and oil still driven by geopolitical premium.
Bhutan's steady Bitcoin sales add another data point: Arkham data suggests roughly $120 million sold this year, including another 123.7 BTC recently moved. It's not a flood, but it's steady overhead in an already fragile tape.
This Week Sets Q2: Three Decisive Catalysts
The March jobs report is expected on Friday. What happens between now and then will define Q2's opening momentum.
First: Powell on Monday. Markets want to know whether the Fed sees higher energy as a temporary shock or a policy problem. If Powell signals flexibility and labor data softens, Bitcoin enters Q2 with room to rebuild from the $65K–$67K floor. If the Fed stays hawkish and war risk escalates, Q2 opens with pressure and $60K becomes the next test.
Second, the U.S. Labor-Consumer Combo. Consumer confidence and JOLTS arrive Tuesday. ADP and retail sales drop Wednesday. Nonfarm payrolls land Friday. A cooling labor market would help duration expectations and likely help Bitcoin. A resilient labor print alongside sticky inflation expectations would strengthen the macro headwind into Q2. This data tells us whether growth is genuinely slowing or whether the market is overstating the slowdown.
Third: ETF Behavior. Bitcoin spot ETFs posted $296M in outflows last week. One week does not define a trend. Two or three weeks would. The question is whether institutional conviction returns mid-week. If it doesn't, the risk of a retest of $60K increases, and Q2 opens with downside momentum.
Positioning is cleaner than sentiment. Conviction remains thin. Bitcoin enters Q2 on a knife edge. Conviction will follow conviction. This week decides the tone. The market is waiting for data.
