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Markets Lean Into December – But Still Not Convinced

You weekly macro cheat sheet

A pivotal run of US data is finally landing, and the rates market now assigns roughly a 50% chance of a Fed cut in December. That shift alone is shaping how digital assets set up for the week.

The key dynamic: crypto no longer needs to front-run Wednesday’s FOMC minutes, since the market has already repriced toward a balanced, coin-flip probability. Instead, positioning looks tethered to Thursday’s delayed September jobs report.

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Bitcoin Playing Both Sides: Risk Asset Victim & Safe Bet

Bitcoin Playing Both Sides: Risk Asset Victim & Safe Bet

Bitcoin ripped higher as a temporary Iran truce eased oil markets and revived risk appetite, but the move is already losing steam near key resistance. Traders are piling into upside calls while still hedging downside, reflecting uncertainty over whether this is a breakout or just a relief rally.