Your weekly macro cheat sheet
Last Friday’s flash crash served as a jolt for crypto markets — a sharp reminder that macro still calls the shots. As we head into a pivotal week, focus turns to two fault lines: inflation expectations and deepening fiscal strains across major economies.
From Washington’s prolonged shutdown to Europe’s budget battles, the coming days promise a test of resilience for both policymakers and investors.
The trade that once let equity investors proxy Bitcoin exposure is breaking down. With treasury firms underperforming their underlying assets, the model is shifting from accumulation to debt management—and many DATCOs may not make it through the next phase.
Institutional inflows are transforming crypto from a retail-led market into a derivatives-driven asset class, with options now central to risk, liquidity, and price formation.
Crypto markets are set to be shaped less by single data prints and more by deeper forces – central bank credibility, AI-driven risk cycles, tariff-led inflation pressures, and dollar liquidity – creating a year defined by volatility, not clean trends.
Short-term charts point to weakness and fading momentum, even as long-term forecasts split sharply between institutional-driven upside and warnings of a deep mean reversion.
