Macro: Fed futures price a -21.8 bps cut for September, with next week’s jobs report pivotal along with September 11’s CPI data. The EU has announced a willingness to remove tariffs on US industrial goods while tariff negotiations are ongoing with India.
Institutional demand: ETF flows continue to strengthen with $81 million for Bitcoin ETFs and $307 million for Ether ETFs over the past day. ETFs, corporates, and governments are now absorbing ~3,600 BTC/day, which translates to ~4x miner issuance. Metaplanet announced a new plan to raise $881 million to buy $837 million BTC in Sep–Oct, adding to its 18,991 BTC.
On-Chain Supply Stress: BTC trades at ~$112K, just below 1 month ($115.6K) and 3 month ($113.6K) cost bases, leaving short-term holders under stress. Key support lies at 6-month cost basis ($107K).
Flows: Spot demand remains neutral, as perpetuals tilt bearish with CVD negative. The current funding rate of ~0.01% points to a fragile neutrality. If price breaks above $112.4K with volume, it opens the pathway to $114K – $116K, while a rejection risks another downside to $110K – $108.7K.
Hash Rate ATH: BTC network security at record levels, which underscores miner conviction despite stressed short-term investor cohorts, with a steadily growing hashrate seen as a bullish indicator.
The uptake follows a launch pitched to Bitget's 125 million users as institutional-grade yield without leaving the exchange, where USDC depositors can earn up to 18% APY and BTC holders around 3%.
Tokyo and Washington's first joint currency intervention in 15 years is designed to do the one thing that would remove the entire premise behind Metaplanet's bitcoin treasury.
Spot HYPE funds led every non-bitcoin crypto ETF category by inflows relative to assets in May and June. JPMorgan says that lead disappeared in July and hasn't come back
