Macro: Fed futures price a -21.8 bps cut for September, with next week’s jobs report pivotal along with September 11’s CPI data. The EU has announced a willingness to remove tariffs on US industrial goods while tariff negotiations are ongoing with India.
Institutional demand: ETF flows continue to strengthen with $81 million for Bitcoin ETFs and $307 million for Ether ETFs over the past day. ETFs, corporates, and governments are now absorbing ~3,600 BTC/day, which translates to ~4x miner issuance. Metaplanet announced a new plan to raise $881 million to buy $837 million BTC in Sep–Oct, adding to its 18,991 BTC.
On-Chain Supply Stress: BTC trades at ~$112K, just below 1 month ($115.6K) and 3 month ($113.6K) cost bases, leaving short-term holders under stress. Key support lies at 6-month cost basis ($107K).
Flows: Spot demand remains neutral, as perpetuals tilt bearish with CVD negative. The current funding rate of ~0.01% points to a fragile neutrality. If price breaks above $112.4K with volume, it opens the pathway to $114K – $116K, while a rejection risks another downside to $110K – $108.7K.
Hash Rate ATH: BTC network security at record levels, which underscores miner conviction despite stressed short-term investor cohorts, with a steadily growing hashrate seen as a bullish indicator.
He would become at least the tenth of 18 co-defendants to admit guilt in a case prosecutors have built as their first Bitcoin-focused RICO prosecution.
The Singapore-to-New York transfer settled in minutes rather than the usual two business days, adding a concrete use case to banks' broader push toward always-on tokenized settlement rails.
The federation's peg-out authorization key needed just 11 of 15 signatures to move nearly 4,000 BTC out of the sidechain, exposing a validation bug that Blockstream says had gone unpatched in its Elements codebase for more than two years.
Bitcoin looks calm on the surface, but ETF inflows, thin liquidity, leverage and geopolitical risk are building a market primed for a sharp move in either direction.
