Macro: Fed futures price a -21.8 bps cut for September, with next week’s jobs report pivotal along with September 11’s CPI data. The EU has announced a willingness to remove tariffs on US industrial goods while tariff negotiations are ongoing with India.
Institutional demand: ETF flows continue to strengthen with $81 million for Bitcoin ETFs and $307 million for Ether ETFs over the past day. ETFs, corporates, and governments are now absorbing ~3,600 BTC/day, which translates to ~4x miner issuance. Metaplanet announced a new plan to raise $881 million to buy $837 million BTC in Sep–Oct, adding to its 18,991 BTC.
On-Chain Supply Stress: BTC trades at ~$112K, just below 1 month ($115.6K) and 3 month ($113.6K) cost bases, leaving short-term holders under stress. Key support lies at 6-month cost basis ($107K).
Flows: Spot demand remains neutral, as perpetuals tilt bearish with CVD negative. The current funding rate of ~0.01% points to a fragile neutrality. If price breaks above $112.4K with volume, it opens the pathway to $114K – $116K, while a rejection risks another downside to $110K – $108.7K.
Hash Rate ATH: BTC network security at record levels, which underscores miner conviction despite stressed short-term investor cohorts, with a steadily growing hashrate seen as a bullish indicator.
A confidential SEC filing and a Cantor mandate put the institutional prime broker back in the spotlight. Since its 2022 peak valuation, FalconX has quietly rebuilt itself into something broader – and harder to price.
Three Samsung affiliates will jointly acquire a 4% stake in Dunamu, operator of South Korea's largest cryptocurrency exchange Upbit, from Kakao affiliates in an all-cash deal worth 612.8 billion won (~$408 million), the companies said Thursday (May 28). The transaction is scheduled to close June 19.
The dual investment gives South Korea's fourth-largest crypto exchange a TradFi partner pursuing STOs and a global operator with reach across 120 million users.
The ETF channel that anchored bitcoin's 2025 rally has flipped to distribution for five straight sessions. The Hormuz headlines accelerated what had been building for weeks.
