Macro: Fed futures price a -21.8 bps cut for September, with next week’s jobs report pivotal along with September 11’s CPI data. The EU has announced a willingness to remove tariffs on US industrial goods while tariff negotiations are ongoing with India.
Institutional demand: ETF flows continue to strengthen with $81 million for Bitcoin ETFs and $307 million for Ether ETFs over the past day. ETFs, corporates, and governments are now absorbing ~3,600 BTC/day, which translates to ~4x miner issuance. Metaplanet announced a new plan to raise $881 million to buy $837 million BTC in Sep–Oct, adding to its 18,991 BTC.
On-Chain Supply Stress: BTC trades at ~$112K, just below 1 month ($115.6K) and 3 month ($113.6K) cost bases, leaving short-term holders under stress. Key support lies at 6-month cost basis ($107K).
Flows: Spot demand remains neutral, as perpetuals tilt bearish with CVD negative. The current funding rate of ~0.01% points to a fragile neutrality. If price breaks above $112.4K with volume, it opens the pathway to $114K – $116K, while a rejection risks another downside to $110K – $108.7K.
Hash Rate ATH: BTC network security at record levels, which underscores miner conviction despite stressed short-term investor cohorts, with a steadily growing hashrate seen as a bullish indicator.
The CFTC-regulated exchange is building a network of Introducing Brokers to distribute event contracts — and has recruited an online casino operator with existing compliance infrastructure and customer-facing platform.
The S&P 500 has recovered all losses incurred since the US-Iran conflict began. Crypto followed, but the rebound is narrow — BTC sitting near two-month highs while altcoins lag.
The $6.5 billion weekly volume record is the data point. The real story is what's changed about who's using these platforms, and why the infrastructure may finally match the demand.
Two insider-linked incidents dating back to February 2025 exposed support data from roughly 2,000 accounts. The exchange says no breach occurred and funds were never at risk.
