Crypto enters CPI day at significant price zones for BTC and ETH, with ETH’s breakout above $4K fueling a broad risk-on tone.
Institutional positioning remains net long, although ETF MVRV’s rise to 2.43 points to elevated unrealized profits and potential profit-taking risk. ETF flow resilience and on-chain accumulation signal structural demand remains intact, even if short-term volatility spikes post-data.
On-chain and derivatives data confirm seller exhaustion and measured re-leveraging, but CPI is now the critical short-term trigger.
ETF inflows, soft inflation, and strong on-chain data pushed BTC toward $98K, until Trump’s tariff threats reignited macro risk and sent capital back to gold.
Onchain data shows major BTC holders turning net positive after the steepest selloff since early 2023, while mid-tier investors reduce exposure, reshaping the balance of market influence.
