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Ethereum – overall, macro risk is wandering through a low magnitude cycle bounce (20 day cycle) within a broader downtrend. In these circumstances, the burden of longer falling cycles tends to squash countertrend rallies quickly and make them peak earlier and trough later.
ETH has just passed through a 40 and a 20 day cycle trough and wants to work its way up to the 40 day cycle peak. There is no conviction target zone for this cycle yet, but the broader implications are thus:
- The August peak was that of the 40 week cycle and this is still leaning in on price and informing the decline since then.
- An 80 day and perhaps even a 20 week cycle trough is due below 1,000 at the end of December – think of this as a downside magnet for price.
The interpretation is: Muted advance that gets crushed by downtrend force early and then a swift zig-zag decline across December.