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Blocksmith Says: ETH Headed Down ‘Cos FTX

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Since the last bold recovery call mere days ago, ETH would regain its composure circa US$1,430 and rally, more FTX event risk kicked and we now find ourselves 265 points lower and no rally.

In cycles analysis terms, this is an exogenous price shock and typically the cycle rhythm reasserts itself once risk is baked in. The sharp decline has also reanalysed the cycles and price looks to be at the 40-day cycle trough now and is attempting to stabilise here.

However, note that there is a decent shelf just above US$1,000, which could act as a near-term liquidity magnet 150 odd points lower. The 80-day cycle peak is now confirmed on 4 November and the next trough isn’t due until the third week of December.

An advance to the next 40-day cycle peak circa US$1,310 around mid-month is the preferred view, but because the 80-day is falling, we have to consider any coming advance to be countertrend and then back down. With an event tail still out there, we still need to be a bit cautious and wait for some more constructive price action.