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Bitcoin traded near $76,800 on Tuesday, down from about $78,500 at the start of the month, according to CoinGecko. There is no Federal Reserve meeting this week to anchor expectations, and four forces will shape where it goes next: December rate-hike odds, an AI-driven equity selloff, the fallout from the Binance hack and a midterm election that could hand Democrats control of Congress.
Ether was little changed around $2,255. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 37 on Monday, in "fear" territory. That reading points to caution rather than capitulation, and this week's calendar will decide whether it stays that way.
The Setup: Demand Is the Weak Link
The question this week is who is buying, more than where the price goes.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net outflows of $643.3 million on Friday, their largest daily outflow since June 25, after the Binance hack. Spot ether ETFs lost $155.9 million on the day and $431.5 million over the week.
The Bitcoin outflow is small against roughly $98 billion in total ETF assets, and analysts quoted by The Block described it as a de-risking day rather than a loss of institutional confidence. Laevitas head of markets Rick Maeda pointed to the precedent of the 2025 Bybit hack and said he would expect "stabilization or modest outflows in the near term rather than a snap-back."
The timing still matters. The funds had taken in about $424 million over the three sessions before the hack, so Friday's outflow erased several days of dip-buying in a single session. Another $399 million left on Monday, the second straight day of outflows, led by BlackRock's IBIT.
October was a losing month for Bitcoin, which fell about 7%, and the second straight October decline after a drop in October 2025.
Seasonality offers little comfort. Bitcoin rose in only three of the past eight Novembers. Two of those gains came in the months after presidential elections, while the two midterm-year Novembers, 2018 and 2022, saw declines of 36.6% and 16.2%. Both came during bear markets and the sample is small, but the "Moonvember" story has no support in recent midterm years.
The Macro Regime: A Fed That Can Hike
The Federal Reserve is leaning toward tightening, and trading on the expectation of rate cuts no longer works.
The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28 by a 10–2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a hike. The committee raised rates in September for the first time since July 2023, and Chair Kevin Warsh declined to give any guidance on December, leaving the decision to the data. So far, the data has been strong.
Third-quarter GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized rate, above the 3.2% forecast. September PCE inflation came in at 3.6% year-over-year, with core at 3.1%, and CPI rose 3.7%. The 10-year Treasury yield hit about 5.36% in early October, its highest level since 2002.
The 10-year yield fell to 4.94% on Friday and about 4.91% on Monday. That move reflected investors seeking safety and a drop in oil prices, and it does not signal easier financial conditions.
Markets have priced in more tightening. Polymarket puts the odds of a December hike at about 71%, and Monday's data did little to change that.
Energy is central to the inflation picture. Brent crude reached its highest level since April on October 23 on concerns over Middle East supply, before falling about 7.6% on Monday on hopes for US-Iran diplomacy. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz keeps headline inflation high, which keeps the Fed hawkish and real yields elevated. That is a headwind for an asset that produces no income.
The Calendar: Three Prints, No Fed
There is no FOMC meeting this week, but the data will move the odds for December.
The week opened with a strong ISM manufacturing reading of 55.5, above expectations of about 54.6 and up from 54.5 in September. The prices-paid index eased to 75.2 from 77.9 but remains very high. The JOLTS job openings report follows on Tuesday.
Wednesday and Thursday: ADP private payrolls on Wednesday, with forecasts around 65,000, and the Bank of England, which is expected to deliver its first rate hike of the cycle on Thursday. Tightening is becoming global, which reinforces the hawkish backdrop.
Friday: October payrolls, the most important release of the week. Consensus is around 65,000 jobs after September's 29,000, with some forecasts closer to 55,000 to 60,000.
The market reaction is less predictable than usual. A weak report would raise growth concerns, but with inflation at 3.6% it may not revive hopes for a cut, because the debate is about whether the Fed hikes in December. A strong report would support a hike, lift the dollar and yields, and likely weigh on Bitcoin. A weak report alongside hot PCE and CPI figures would point to stagflation, which has hurt crypto before.
Looking further ahead, October CPI is due on November 10 and the Fed's next decision on December 9, and traders will position for both through the week.
The Equity Link: Bitcoin Is Trading as a Tech Proxy
Bitcoin keeps falling with technology stocks. It dropped below $80,000 late on October 28 after an earnings miss at Alphabet, weak chip profits at Samsung and the hawkish Fed hold, with about $356 million of leveraged positions liquidated.
That correlation matters more this week. The Nasdaq fell 2.9% on Friday, its worst day since June, after disappointing results from Intel and Amazon, and lost 5.3% in October, its worst month since March 2025. Amazon reported a trailing free cash flow deficit of $42.4 billion as its AI spending climbs. The selling continued on Monday, when an early rally reversed on AI-spending worries and the Nasdaq closed down 1.1%.
Earnings add to the pressure. Apple and Palantir both beat estimates after Monday's close, but their shares still fell about 3% in after-hours trading, Apple on cautious guidance and Palantir on slower contract growth. AMD and Block, which holds Bitcoin on its balance sheet, report after Tuesday's close, followed by Qualcomm, Circle and Riot on Wednesday. AMD is the next test of the AI spending story after its shares fell nearly 11% on Friday, and a second weak chip report would likely deepen the risk-off mood.
Bitcoin has not acted as a hedge against the unwinding of the AI trade, and traders should not assume it will this week.
The Midterms: A Policy Repricing
Tuesday's vote, with polls opening in the US today, may matter more for crypto's path in 2027 than for this week's price.
Prediction markets give Democrats a 94% chance of winning the House and 74% for the Senate, according to Kalshi.
The legislative backdrop is thin. The CLARITY Act passed the House 294–134 in July 2025 but failed a Senate cloture vote 49–50 on September 15, 2026. If Congress does not pass it before the new session convenes on January 3, 2027, the bill dies and must be reintroduced.
The scenarios matter for positioning. In a Democratic sweep, which TD Cowen's Jaret Seiberg sees as the most likely outcome and the worst for crypto, Elizabeth Warren, a critic of CLARITY, would likely chair the Senate Banking Committee. Sen. Angela Alsobrooks, a key negotiator on the bill, told Puck that a Democratic Congress would "absolutely not" make it a priority, though she said it could still pass in the lame-duck session. A sweep would weigh on crypto stocks, exchanges and altcoins tied to US regulatory progress.
In a divided Congress, with Democrats controlling the House and Republicans the Senate, TD Cowen sees a better outcome for Bitcoin. Maxine Waters could back parts of a market-structure bill in return for investor protections.
There is also oversight risk. A Democratic House would likely return Waters to the chair of the Financial Services Committee and give Democrats subpoena power, which they have signaled they would use to examine the Trump family's crypto ventures. Waters has condemned the October 2025 pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, and after the hack, a Binance-focused hearing would be a significant headline risk.
The industry has spent heavily. Crypto groups have put more than $200 million into the midterms, according to CNBC. If the result matches the polls, that money bought less than the industry hoped.
Much of this is already priced in. With a Democratic House above 90%, the remaining surprise risk sits mainly with the Senate.
Binance: The Contagion Check
The FBI has attributed the hack to North Korea's TraderTraitor group, which it said stole more than $6 billion. Binance puts the loss at $6.3 billion.
Binance reopened withdrawals on Sunday, and co-CEO Richard Teng said the exchange has replenished about 95% of the impacted assets. The figure to watch is whether customers run.
Binance's own data showed about $3.64 billion in net outflows in the first nine and a half hours after reopening, and a spokesperson put the total at $4.72 billion, or about 2.8% of assets, by Monday. Co-CEO Yi He said some of those transfers were moves between Binance's own wallets, which could overstate how many customers actually left.
Scale explains why this matters. Binance holds roughly $132 billion in customer assets, against about $29 billion at OKX, according to Bloomberg. A disorderly exodus would be a liquidity event for the whole market.
Two secondary risks are worth watching. The first is laundering. On-chain analyst SomaXBT has tracked $242 million of proceeds moving through Tron, and the FBI has asked THORChain node operators to block addresses linked to the hack. The second is politics. President Donald Trump has publicly questioned the FBI's finding, saying "we don't know if it's North Korea," which could complicate the enforcement response.
Withdrawals are only partly restored. Binance reopened 15 networks first and plans to bring back more from Tuesday, with its next proof-of-reserves snapshot due on Wednesday. Daily net flows and any setbacks in reopening are the clearest indicators to watch.
The Treasury Bid: Strategy's Cushion Is Thin
Strategy is both Bitcoin's steadiest buyer and a source of risk.
The company holds 848,517 BTC at an average cost of $75,446, which leaves Bitcoin less than 2% above its cost basis at around $76,800. It reported third-quarter operating income of $20.91 billion, almost entirely from gains on its Bitcoin. During the quarter it bought 7,218 BTC and sold 5,552, using the sales to fund preferred dividends and buybacks. Its chief financial officer is also stepping down.
Executive Chairman Michael Saylor said, "We're at the beginning of the next bitcoin bull market." The balance sheet suggests a drop to $75,000 would put the largest corporate holder underwater on its position, which would be a damaging story for the market even without any forced selling.
Key Levels
Flows will matter more than technicals this week, but the technical picture still leans lower.
Bitcoin's 50-day EMA sits around $80,800, with resistance at the October 21 high near $84,900. Bitcoin is now testing support in the $76,264–$76,476 range, in line with the 200-day EMA. Below that, the September low of $74,967 is the next reference point. The former support level near $79,200 has already broken.
Options markets look calm. Deribit's DVOL volatility index is near 36.5, suggesting traders do not expect large swings.
The macro backdrop combines a hawkish Fed, 3.6% inflation, yields near 5% and an equity market unsettled by AI spending. That is not an environment that rewards Bitcoin, and this week's catalysts are more likely to produce volatility than a clear direction.
The bull case needs three things to go right: a moderate jobs report that does not revive stagflation fears, an orderly Binance reopening without a run, and a divided Congress. The bear case needs only one of them to go wrong.
With options pricing calm and ETF demand fragile, caution makes sense until Tuesday's vote count and Friday's jobs data are in.
