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The S&P 500 climbed 1% on Tuesday, completing a full recovery of losses incurred since the US-Iran conflict began in late February. The equal-weight S&P 500 also rose 1%, while the Russell 2000 outperformed at +1.5%. The Nasdaq 100 extended a nine-game winning streak — its strongest run since September 2025.
The inflection point was Trump's comments that Iran wants to talk. Oil slipped below $100 as de-escalation hopes grew, pulling energy off their war-elevated levels and rotating capital back into tech and rate-sensitive sectors. Brent had been elevated on strait-of-Hormuz concerns; relief compressed that premium fast.
During the Feb 27–March 30 selloff, the sector divergence was stark. Energy (XLE) was the only sector in the green, rising 11% while tech (XLK) fell 8%. The reversal Tuesday — tech leading, energy lagging — reflects that dynamic unwinding.
Crypto: BTC holds near two-month highs
Bitcoin traded around $74,459 on Wednesday morning Asia time, roughly flat over 24 hours but up 4.2% over the week. ETH sat at $2,329 (-1.9% 24h, +4.3% 7d). SOL lagged at $84 (-2.8% 24h, -0.9% 7d) per Coinmarketcap data, reflecting the narrow character of the rally — BTC and ETH held their recovery levels while altcoins didn't follow as far.
The BTC chart context: the $74-75K zone is the descending trendline from October's $126K peak. Three attempted breakouts in the past two months have failed at that level. Bulls need a clean close above $76-78K to change the technical picture.
On Polymarket, ceasefire markets are pricing with high confidence — the "Military action against Iran ends by April 17" market sits at 100%. Whether that resolves cleanly enough to sustain risk-on positioning in crypto is the live question.
The setup ahead
The Iran geopolitical premium has largely come out of markets. What's left is an equity market that's recovered, a crypto market that's followed, and a focus that pivots back to fundamentals — Powell's final FOMC meeting April 28-29, Q1 earnings season entering its heavy week, and macro data that will either reinforce or undermine the rate-cut case.
The $75K level on BTC is the near-term battleground.
