Key takeaways
- Bitcoin staged a modest relief bounce from a weekend low of $83,600 to ~$87,000, but breadth remains weak.
- Options flow is skewed and defensive: heavy 75K put buying and rising one-week implied volatility.
- Short-term holders sit at cycle-low NUPL and are clearly capitulating, implications for volatility and mean reversion are high.
- This week’s macro calendar (PPI, retail sales, GDP, PCE) will decide whether the bounce becomes a base or an exhaustion rally.
