Key takeaways
- Bitcoin opened the week holding the $95,000 level after momentum shifted below $100,000; downside protection at 95K is heavily bid.
- Short-term holders sit deep in losses; onchain capitulation metrics point to panic selling near-term but historically signal potential bottoming.
- Market waits for two catalysts this week: Nvidia earnings (Wednesday) and the delayed U.S. September employment report (Thursday).
- Volatility and put demand are elevated with options skew and 95K put bids indicating asymmetric downside risk.
- A reclaim and hold above $100,000 (and steady ETF inflows) would be the clean path back to structural recovery; failure opens room to $88k–$92k.
