BTC jumped to roughly $115,500, as risk appetite returns with broad market cap rising to over $3.9 trillion.
A short squeeze produced roughly $392 million of liquidations and wiped out ~101,591 traders, with Bitcoin shorts accounting for about $87 million.
Macro catalysts including a good spin in the U.S.–China trade rhetoric and a dovish Fed outlook drove the move. Powell and the Trump–Xi headlines remain primary regime drivers.
Derivatives structure is mixed: funding stays muted/negative and open interest elevated which signals that rallies are real but fragile, subject to quick deleveraging.
Tactical posture: reduce headline sensitivity with staggered sizing; favor core BTC exposure, selected ETH and SOL risk, and maintain cash buffer for volatility.
As Chainalysis touts the accuracy of its tracing tools, new out-of-sample tests of the co-spend heuristic raise urgent questions about error rates, scientific validation, and whether blockchain forensic evidence meets legal standards.
As ETFs, corporate treasuries, and tokenized real-world assets absorb supply, the old four-year retail cycle is giving way to a macro-driven, institution-led regime where liquidity concentrates, volatility compresses, and value accrues to utility over hype.
