BTC reclaimed support at $110,000 and trades near $111,200 after a modest intraday lift; ETH edged toward $4,000.
Spot flows mixed: Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $20.33 million net inflow (BlackRock IBIT led with $108 million). On the other hand, Ethereum ETFs saw another day of outflows worth $128 million.
Long-term holders are still distributing, however, the Dolphin cohort (100–1,000 BTC) now holds ~26% of supply and remains the marginal buyer.
Elevated open interest can amplify volatility with key liquidation clusters sitting above $114,000.
Macro shock: U.S. government shutdown enters day 24; ADP suspended data sharing to the Fed, with policymakers facing an unprecedented information vacuum ahead of the October FOMC.
For the first time since it began accumulating Bitcoin in 2020, Michael Saylor signalled the company may sell part of its holdings — a shift in the buy-and-hold model that has defined Strategy's identity and underpinned its equity premium.
The exchange's third major headcount reduction in three years tracks closely with the crypto market cycle, even as Armstrong points to AI as a structural reason to operate with fewer people.
The SEC this week delayed the launch of more than two dozen prediction market ETFs, citing concerns about product mechanics and disclosures. A Bloomberg analysis published last week suggests the retail-friendly pitch underpinning these products doesn't quite hold up to scrutiny.
A wave of exchange-traded funds designed to give investors exposure to prediction market outcomes was expected to begin trading as early as Thursday — until U.S. regulators intervened.
