Momentum continues to fade as BTC remains rangebound between $109,500 and $107,200, settling near $108,750.
Spot flows cooled: Yesterday, Bitcoin ETFs saw $101 million outflow; Ethereum ETFs saw $19 million in outflows, with institutional demand wavering over the past few days.
Long-term holder selling remains elevated (30-day SMA > 22,000 BTC/day) with persistent distribution now acting as a structural headwind.
Options Open Interest (OI) rose to an all-time high while put demand also rose. This signals short-term options that could amplify intraday moves.
Critical bands: short-term holders’ cost basis $113.1k, 0.85 quantile $108.6k, 0.75 quantile ~$97.5k. Losing the 0.85 band risks deeper drawdowns.
An implant that read recovery phrases off the screen and sent them out over LTE has been linked to more than $86 million in suspected thefts, and a second tampered device has now surfaced in Singapore.
Headline and core CPI both came in a tenth above forecasts, and Bitcoin slipped below $82,000 as traders raised the odds of a second consecutive rate increase at the Fed's Oct. 27–28 meeting.
Tiger Research's Q3 data shows the rebound's capital went into tokens and ETFs, while the money that did reach crypto companies came increasingly from exchanges, lenders and public markets instead of the lead VCs that set terms in past cycles.
The trade settled a two-year note within minutes and pledged it as overnight collateral, a test of whether tokenization can shorten the gap between buying a bond and financing it.
