Momentum continues to fade as BTC remains rangebound between $109,500 and $107,200, settling near $108,750.
Spot flows cooled: Yesterday, Bitcoin ETFs saw $101 million outflow; Ethereum ETFs saw $19 million in outflows, with institutional demand wavering over the past few days.
Long-term holder selling remains elevated (30-day SMA > 22,000 BTC/day) with persistent distribution now acting as a structural headwind.
Options Open Interest (OI) rose to an all-time high while put demand also rose. This signals short-term options that could amplify intraday moves.
Critical bands: short-term holders’ cost basis $113.1k, 0.85 quantile $108.6k, 0.75 quantile ~$97.5k. Losing the 0.85 band risks deeper drawdowns.
For the first time since it began accumulating Bitcoin in 2020, Michael Saylor signalled the company may sell part of its holdings — a shift in the buy-and-hold model that has defined Strategy's identity and underpinned its equity premium.
The exchange's third major headcount reduction in three years tracks closely with the crypto market cycle, even as Armstrong points to AI as a structural reason to operate with fewer people.
The SEC this week delayed the launch of more than two dozen prediction market ETFs, citing concerns about product mechanics and disclosures. A Bloomberg analysis published last week suggests the retail-friendly pitch underpinning these products doesn't quite hold up to scrutiny.
A wave of exchange-traded funds designed to give investors exposure to prediction market outcomes was expected to begin trading as early as Thursday — until U.S. regulators intervened.
