Flows: Ethereum spot ETFs added $360 million on Sept 15 (fifth straight day); Bitcoin spot ETFs added $260 million (sixth straight day). US spot ETF inflows remain well above normal ranges.
Momentum vs. conviction: The RSI surged to 78.1, while CVD weakened, and volumes remained flat, indicating strong momentum but limited conviction.
Derivatives: Futures open interest rose to approximately $47.5 billion; perpetual CVD increased to $48.5 million, indicating aggressive buy-side leverage.
On-chain mix: Active addresses slipped, transfer volume increased, fees dipped, with capital moving, but user activity is muted.
Event risk: The Federal Reserve decision tomorrow is the single biggest directional catalyst; reduced hedging (skew down) raises the risk of a volatility surprise.
Beijing expands its crypto crackdown, while Hong Kong defies the mainland by preparing to issue stablecoin licenses in March, raising questions about regulatory autonomy and US dollar dominance in digital finance.
A $1.2 trillion AI unwind rattled Wall Street, dragging tech and crypto-linked equities lower as investors brace for a pivotal CPI print that could reset rate-cut hopes and pressure risk assets from Nasdaq names to Bitcoin.
