Flows: Ethereum spot ETFs added $360 million on Sept 15 (fifth straight day); Bitcoin spot ETFs added $260 million (sixth straight day). US spot ETF inflows remain well above normal ranges.
Momentum vs. conviction: The RSI surged to 78.1, while CVD weakened, and volumes remained flat, indicating strong momentum but limited conviction.
Derivatives: Futures open interest rose to approximately $47.5 billion; perpetual CVD increased to $48.5 million, indicating aggressive buy-side leverage.
On-chain mix: Active addresses slipped, transfer volume increased, fees dipped, with capital moving, but user activity is muted.
Event risk: The Federal Reserve decision tomorrow is the single biggest directional catalyst; reduced hedging (skew down) raises the risk of a volatility surprise.
SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw’s departure leaves the agency without a Democratic voice, strengthening Republican control and clearing the path for a more crypto-friendly regulatory agenda in 2026.
Geopolitical risks from Venezuela to Greenland are fading into the background as investors refocus on US data and Fed rate cuts, but turbulence in crypto markets shows risk appetite remains fragile.
