LTH spending spike: Long-term holders (LTH) sold off 97k BTC on Friday, representing the largest one-day LTH move this year. This sell-off was concentrated in 1–2 year old holders, 6–12 month old holders, and 3–5 year old holders, which represent a key source of recent supply.
Price action: BTC is consolidating near $108–$110K, facing resistance at $111.6K / $113.6K and support at $107.4K. Heavy liquidations clustered around ~$109.5K last week.
Macro & geo risk: Escalation in Israel/Gaza and renewed Russia–Ukraine energy strikes raise risk premium, which could result in headline-sensitive volatility.
Action bias: Reduce leverage, favor staggered entries and defensive sizing; watch whether BTC holds $107.4K and whether ETF flows resume after Labour Day to absorb long-term holders selling.
