ETF Outflows and Geopolitical Turbulence Shape a Cautious Market

Key Takeaways

• ETF outflows saw ETH record a $197 million fund exit, its second-largest in history, while BTC also hit pause with a $122 million departure. Currently, BTC ETFs hold 6.38% of supply, while ETH ETFs hold 5.08% with ETH on track to surpass BTC by September, if the current inflow pace is sustained.
• Ethereum exit queue hit a record with 910K ETH (~$3.9B) pending withdrawal, while 268K ETH is waiting to stake. On the BTC side, whale accumulation persists: 20,061 BTC added by wallets holding at least 10K BTC since Aug 13; bringing total added since March to 225K BTC.
• Macro–Geopolitical layer: Trump pushes U.S.–Ukraine–Russia trilateral talks; potential ceasefire opens risk-on window, while bomber strike threats add volatility risk.