Key Takeaways
- ETF inflows are tentatively returning, offering a structural pillar as short-term volatility moderates.
- Behavioral metrics show cautious risk-on behavior. Approximately $120,000 worth of Bitcoin was purchased during the recovery from $112,000 to $114,000, demonstrating opportunistic purchasing. However, there is still little supply in the $110k–$116k region, so more robust accumulation is required to create long-term support.
- Macro-policy risks remain key drivers, particularly CPI and Fed credibility, maintaining flexibility over directional conviction.
