Table of Contents
The 2 February high was the peak of both the 20 week and 80 day cycles. The next 80 day cycle trough is due this week and a likely stopping place is the blue line, the 80 day FLD circa $1400. At which point the expectation is for a new 80 day cycle to commence.
The FLD is a replica cycle pushed forward in time and when price looks to intersect with it at a trough zone we expect it to act as resistance.
We have to bear in mind that because we have just had a 20 week cycle peak (meaning this longer cycle is now falling) that there is a bearish burden on the next 80 day cycle. We are expecting a bounce but it should be running into a headwind.
This note is published in conjunction with Hurst Cycles Notes. A Macro Outlook note comes out every Monday. The macro outlook series (subscription $37 per month) covers much of the macro complex: US Dollar, Gold, Copper, Oil, Yen, Euro, SPX, Nikkei, Bitcoin and US 10-year yield, along with extra content, long term views on multiple assets and updates every week.
