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Blocksmith Says: BTC to Fall Before Rising

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Looking at the 240-minute chart for Bitcoin today. The expectation is for a nest of lows, up to the magnitude of the 80-day cycle, sometime in the first week of September somewhat below US$22,000. I have plotted the arc of the 80-day cycle over the data in light blue but the trading cycle is that of the 40-day cycle.

There are two 40-day cycles (darker blue semi-circles) in an 80-day and the second 40-day cycle in the longer set topped on 15 August at US$25,203. This means that price now has falling 40 and 80-day cycles as its tailwind, which should force price lower.

The preferred view is for a decent advance possibly 20%+ from the upcoming cycle trough. It probably will not be a clear shot down and I have drawn in a likely price trajectory. Underpinning the price path once price bottoms in early September is a longer up cycle, that of the 40-week cycle which bottomed on 19 June. This cycle is only 60 days old and its status therefore remains up.


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