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Last Friday I was forced to capitulate on the Ethereum downside call. There is a high likelihood that this call will be put out again, but for now the “pain” trade grinding higher in risk makes it unsustainable to hold.
With that said however, Bitcoin although highly correlated, is not behaving correctly for a robust rally. Price remains below the US$25,424 resistance line (the 12 May crash low and the 13 June breakdown level) and the advance from the 18 June low is highly suspect, being shallow and choppy.
In mid to late September, there is due a significant cycle trough or nest of lows up to and including the 18-month cycle. If the 18 June bottom was the 18-month cycle low, then we would currently be rallying very hard. The slope of the advance would be steep and there would be no overlap in adjacent waves. Neither of these characteristics are present and so the 18 June is not a good candidate for the placement of the 18 month cycle trough, which means it’s coming.
If this is the case then it means that the cycle’s status is hard down and what we are looking at now is the final phase of a corrective move up which is due to fall over and push down hard.
