If you have been following recent notes, the analytical theme for Bitcoin has been as follows: corrective, choppy, upward sloping “flag” pattern from mid June grinding higher, then slipping lower in a more or less random walk.
From 26 July there was a hard push upwards, but the feeling throughout was that it would reach up into the top of the flag’s channel and then fail.
This decline now looks to be underway and risk is skewing to the downside. The preferred view remains that the bottom of the channel gets taken out at around 20,700 and price pushes further down. The reason for this is that the higher degree downtrend should now be reasserting itself. The flag correction being just that, a corrective interrupt phase within a broader downtrend.
By extension, we should also see a decline in Ethereum and equity index futures, notably Nasdaq futures.