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Blocksmith Says: More Downside for BTC

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In my last note I highlighted a possible support ledge somewhat south of US$20,000 (last price at time of writing US$22,000). We had a FOMC 75bps hike yesterday, but that was largely priced in by equity indices and hence the weak bounce in S&P500 Index futures. However, equities are still heavy and very likely to press lower which will drag crypto down.

You can see from the simple chart that the March channel is still down and we are not at the bottom yet (that’s just below US$20,000 as well). RSI may well be oversold, and may well have jumped a little, but in the circumstances it signifies little.

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Privacy, Transparency & Coercion-Resistance

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Another “hack” that wasn’t: the Kelp DAO incident shows how social engineering, self-custody, and privacy tools converge – protecting users on paper while quietly amplifying theft incentives and eroding accountability when governance itself is designed to resist oversight.