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Blocksmith Says: New Upside Cycle Looms for Bitcoin

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Although there was the first rate hike in 20+ years with the expectation of more to follow, it seems that the market was excessively pessimistic running into the meeting and had priced in larger scale hikes (for example 75 bps). This scenario was taken off the table in Fed chairman Jerome Powell’s comments – heavy inflation notwithstanding – and this may account for the aggressive repositioning.

Bitcoin bounced out of the confluence of support highlighted recently and again in today’s chart and the low volatility environment shifted to high gear.. for now.

Price is now challenging the March downtrend return line (i.e. the one that encompasses the top of the decline) and an upside reversal is on the cards. Since we are also in a larger magnitude cycle trough zone, the preferred view is that the upswing of this new cycle carries Bitcoin back up across the range.